In the various looks ahead to whether Gov. Rick Perry makes another run for the White House, several observers noted that he may have blown his best shot at the Republican nomination by performing so disastrously in 2012, when the field included weak candidates, a few of whom were, if not outright jokes, then close to it. This observation holds that Perry will face a much stronger and more accomplished Republican primary field in 2016, and he will struggle to win the nomination no matter how prepared he is when he enters the race or how much he’s able to overcome 2012’s “oops” moment. The frequently mentioned list of possible 2016 Republican candidates includes Marco Rubio, Chris Christi, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Rand Paul, Bobby Jindal and, in the Republican version of the role Barack Obama played in the 2008 Democratic primary, Ted Cruz.
This is a stronger list than 2012’s, which included Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain and Rick Santorum. Christi and Bush ordinarily would appear to be the candidates to beat, and Cruz probably would best the field in any debate, but Christi and Bush are distrusted by the Republican base, while Cruz’s appeal is all base and little else thus far.
Rubio, thanks to his immigration reform efforts in the Senate, is on the outs with the Republicans’ tea party faction. He is said to have charisma but he keeps it pretty well hidden. His presence before the television cameras is less than commanding. As is Jindal’s. (What do Rubio and Jindal have in common? Memorably flat and shaky State of the Union rebuttals.) If Jindal runs he’d be seeking the nomination of the party he called “the stupid party” not that many months ago.
Paul may not live in the libertarian fantasy his father, Ron Paul, lives in, but few Americans, even conservatives, share his vision of government. And in 2012 Ryan was an ineffective vice presidential candidate; he did not set himself up well for a 2016 run.
So the Republicans who run in 2016 might be stronger candidates than those who ran in 2012, but each will have his vulnerabilities. Someone will win the nomination, of course, and a Republican candidate might even win the White House. While I doubt it’ll be Rick Perry, the opponents Perry will face, should he run, might not be as strong as some are saying they are.
As for the Democrats, their list pretty much begins and ends with Hillary Clinton. Unlike the Republicans, the Democrats don’t have a deep, young bench. If Clinton doesn’t run, then who is there? Andrew Coumo? Mark Warner?