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Election reaction: The demographic tide; plus odds and ends

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The focus has been on Hispanic voters since President Obama’s re-election Tuesday. Hispanic support for Obama was overwhelming - 71 percent, compared with 27 percent for Mitt Romney, according to exit polls.

Hispanic voters are part of a broad coalition that slowly has come together to support Democratic candidates the past 20 years. The coalition includes women, blacks, Asians (who three elections ago leaned Republican but went for Obama 3 to 1), voters ages 18-44, postgraduate voters, urban voters and, increasingly, suburban voters. For years the while male, elderly and rural voters Republicans have relied on to win elections have been steadily shrinking relative to the rest of the electorate. But Republicans have struggled to adjust to America’s shifting demographics as formerly fringe elements of the party have become its mainstream and have opted to try to limit the number of voters rather than expand their own limited coalition. Perhaps this election taught them there are only so many votes they can block.

Democrats have won four of the last six presidential elections, and five of the last six presidential popular votes. A bad candidate can thwart demographic advantages, but unless Republicans commit themselves to “a period of reflection and recalibration,” as Texas Sen. John Cornyn phrased it after Obama’s victory, losses in presidential and Senate elections will become a trend that won’t be easily reversed.

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Cornyn’s reflection and recalibration is one path available to Republicans. Another comes courtesy of Gov. Rick Perry: Treat losing as winning. “We must hold his and Congress’ feet to the fire to once-and-for-all cut spending, repeal Obamacare and withdraw federal encroachment into state decision-making and personal liberties,” Perry said after Obama’s re-election Tuesday.

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Obama beat Romney by 3 million votes. He lost only two states that he won in 2008, Indiana and North Carolina, and only in Indiana did he lose by a wide margin.

Thanks to demographic changes, Nevada has become a Democratic state, and Virginia, North Carolina and Florida are on the verge. It’s only a matter of time before Texas becomes competitive for Democrats (assuming Democrats in Texas can ever get their act together).

Turnout was lower than four years ago: Obama received about 8.2 million fewer votes than in 2008, while Romney received about 1.8 million fewer votes than John McCain.

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Rep. Paul Ryan did nothing to help Romney. He was a dud on the campaign trail, Romney backed away from his positions on the budget and entitlements, and his previous statements on rape and abortion linked him to Todd Akin and other extremist, out-of-touch Republican men.

And he failed to deliver his home state of Wisconsin - failed to even make it competitive. Obama won Wisconsin by seven percentage points, 53-46.

Then again, Romney failed to win his native state of Michigan and the three states in which he has a home: New Hampshire, Massachusetts and California.

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Finally, here’s the basis of a trivia question for you. With Obama’s victory Tuesday, American voters have now re-elected three consecutive presidents: Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama. That has happened only once before. In 1820, James Monroe won the second of his two terms, becoming the third of three straight two-term presidents. The first two? Thomas Jefferson (1801-1809) and James Madison (1809-1817).

Jefferson, Madison, Monroe … Clinton, Bush, Obama. Six presidents you can now mention in the same breath.


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