Please join me tonight as I follow election developments, starting around 5:30. I’ll be watching the presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, of course, but also select national and statewide races as well as a handful of local races and the fate of Austin bond and City Charter propositions.
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the White House. Here are the states in play (all poll-closing times listed are Central Standard Time - or Austin time, if you prefer):
Virginia. Electoral votes: 13. Polls close at 6. Obama won Virginia in 2008, the first Democrat to do so since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. A repeat in 2012 and Obama could be set up for a good night.
Florida. Electoral votes: 29. Most polls close at 6; others in the Panhandle close at 7. Opinion polls point toward a Romney win.
New Hampshire. Electoral votes: 4. Some polls close at 6; others at 7. A small but important prize that could prove the difference between 267 electoral votes and a loss and victory with 271. Romney owns a home here, and he was governor of neighboring Massachusetts. This should be a Romney win, but Obama is favored.
North Carolina. Electoral votes: 15. Polls close at 6:30. Obama won North Carolina in 2008. The Democrats held their national convention here, thinking a repeat was possible. The thinking now appears to have been more wishful than probable.
Ohio. Electoral votes: 18. Polls close at 6:30. Obama can lose Virginia and Florida and still be in control of the electoral vote. Lose Ohio and the president’s re-election chances are in trouble.
Michigan. Electoral votes: 16. Most polls close at 7; others at 8. Obama appears comfortably ahead here but the state has popped up as a toss-up on the electoral map compiled by Real Clear Politics. Curious.
Pennsylvania. Electoral votes: 20. Polls close at 7. Like Michigan, a state Obama should win. And like Michigan, it has popped up as a toss-up on Real Clear Politics’ electoral map. Again, curious.
Colorado. Electoral votes: 9. Polls close at 8. Colorado could become the president’s last stand should he lose Ohio.
Minnesota. Electoral votes: 10. Polls close at 8. The Washington Post’s George Will says Romney will win Minnesota. The opinion polls say George Will doesn’t know what he’s talking about. But there is a proposed amendment to ban gay marriage on the ballot. A series of similar amendments in a dozen states worked wonders for George W. Bush’s re-election in 2004; could Minnesota’s ballot initiative mean a Romney upset in 2012?
Wisconsin. Electoral votes: 10. Polls close at 8. Rep. Paul Ryan’s home state. Romney’s running mate has been a bit of a dud on the campaign trail; he may prove a dud carrying his home state for the Republican ticket, too.
Iowa. Electoral votes: 6. Polls close at 9. Iowa boosted Obama toward the White House in the 2008 Democratic caucuses. Will it boost him toward re-election?
Nevada. Electoral votes: 6. Polls close at 9. Nevada’s years as a toss-up state appear numbered as it slowly becomes more Democratic. A Romney win would be a surprise.