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History turns on a dropped pass

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The New England Patriots lost last night’s Super Bowl. Well, OK, the New York Giants won, but sometimes games are lost more than they’re won, and the Patriots lost Super Bowl XLVI.

The loss came with 4:06 left in the game when Tom Brady threw a little high and behind Wes Welker. Welker could have caught the ball (he got both hands around it) but Brady could have made a better throw, too. Welker may be taking most of the blame for the drop, but it was at least equally Brady’s fault.

Anyway, if any game can be boiled down to a single play, the Brady-Welker drop was the decisive play of Super Bowl XLVI. If Welker catches the pass, the Patriots are in position to score again. More important, they have a new set of downs that lets them run more time off the clock (the Giants had only one timeout left, plus the two-minute warning). If Welker catches the pass, the game’s all but over.

So now Brady and the Patriots have lost two Super Bowls after winning three in four years. For Brady, that fourth title that would put him in the same championship arena as Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw remains bitterly elusive.

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For the next couple of days you’re probably going to hear a lot of talk about Brady’s tarnished legacy - about how he’s a pedestrian 6-6 in the postseason since winning his first 10 playoff games from 2001 to 2005.

Please. Brady’s legacy is secure. Statistically he’s gotten better since New England won its last Super Bowl seven years ago and he has carried the Patriots since returning in 2009 from a knee injury that cost him all but the first 7½ minutes of the 2008 season. His top receivers this year were two tight ends and a slot receiver who rarely catches passes thrown beyond 20 yards (a reason why Welker dropped Brady’s 23-yard pass last night?).

Brady hasn’t had a speedy receiver who can stretch the field since Randy Moss and he hasn’t had a threatening running game to take pressure off his passing since Corey Dillon rushed for more than 1,600 yards in 2004. Yet Brady threw for 5,235 yards (second most in NFL history) and 39 touchdowns this season. His passer rating was 105.6. Over the past three years, he has thrown for 13,533 yards, with 103 touchdowns and only 29 interceptions. His average passer rating the past three seasons is 104.3.


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